Issue #8

Dealing with downsizing, managing second order effects, and the quest to solve problems before they happen

Author

Stride Team 🐶
November 08, 2022

AI prompt: tech CEO in a hoodie sitting at a table sending an email to staff, looking down disappointed

This week's AI prompt: tech CEO in a hoodie sitting at a table sending an email to staff, looking down disappointed

Issue #8 - Sheesh, what a week in tech. Our heart goes out to those affected by the string of big tech layoffs recently. We hope the right new opportunity comes your way soon.

WHAT'S INSIDE

  • 🧳 Delivering bad news is never fun. But how can you do it in the most effective and considerate way possible? And how can you protect yourself in case a corporate decision leaves you unemployed?

  • 🎮 How did a public health crisis lead to delays in game console shipments? Today we talk about second-order effects and how you can use them to be a more effective manager

  • 🔎 Senior operator roles at companies like Figma & 23andMe

  • 🤖 Will AI produce the next trillion dollar company? If the same logic Bezos used to build Amazon still holds, it just might!

A DEEPER DIVE: HANDLING TOUGH CONVERSATIONS

While it’s not the most fun thing to talk about, the reality of being a senior leader is that you’re often called upon to make difficult decisions and have tough conversations. Sometimes that includes letting go of team members. Yet just like anything else, how you conduct yourself when you go through a corporate downsizing says a lot about you as a manager and ultimately is a reflection of the corporate brand.

Here are two articles that talk through how to treat exiting employees with dignity and grace, as well as how you should think about a layoff if you happen to be on the receiving end of the downsizing decision.

What it's about: Indeed’s editorial team shares best practices for delivering various types of bad news so that team members feel seen and respected

TLDR / Key Takeaways

  • “Above all else, it's important to speak honestly and with empathy when delivering unpleasant news. This way, the receiver of the information knows the decision is final but also knows that you, and the company as a whole, respect and care about them.”

  • Have your talking points down pat. Be able to communicate the reason for the decision, who made the decision, next steps resulting from the decision, and answers to potential questions that might come up once the news is delivered

  • Avoid small talk when having a serious conversation. Keep the meeting focused on the important topic, and begin by addressing the unpleasant news

  • Be clear and direct. Try not to use business jargon or reframe the decision in a way that makes it seem less severe. It’s ok to show empathy with those affected, but continue to reflect confidence in the decision made and maintain your position as a representative

  • Give time for responses. Allow the team member(s) to ask questions and share their feelings. Offer sympathy and empathy for any sense of loss or other emotions that may arise from the receiver(s), but continue to enforce the finality of the decision.

  • Discuss next steps. End the conversation by discussing how to move on from the decision or information

Christine vs. Work: How to Be Ready for a Layoff, Even if Your Job Feels Secure for Now

It never hurts to be prepared for the worst.

What it's about: HBR speaks with executive career transition coach Susan Peppercorn to discuss how professionals can take charge in managing their career

TLDR / Key Takeaways

  • Keep track of your accomplishments on a week-to-week basis. These will be useful when you need to update your LinkedIn or resume, or speak with potential hirers during interviews. Don’t wait until you’re out of a job to update your job history, because it’s difficult to reconstruct your achievements over a period of years

  • >70% of professionals find their next job through their network, so keep your network active

  • Backup important files (that you’re allowed to take outside of your corporate servers) and contacts. Remember that if a company makes a layoff decision, you may lose access to corporate systems and equipment on the same day you’re notified

  • Do a financial wellness check to know where you stand, and prioritize saving if you feel unprepared. As a rule of thumb, have 6 months saved up for living expenses and a rainy day fund for emergencies

  • Don’t worry so much about lapses in your resume. Recruiters and hiring managers understand the impact the pandemic and the economy have had on workforces in recent years

A look at the data: If you care to see trends in layoffs globally, check out the aggregator Layoffs Tracker

MENTAL MODEL OF THE WEEK: SECOND ORDER EFFECTS

When we have to make a decision, we humans are good at identifying the immediate consequences of that decision. The thing is, often times our actions have dependencies that cascade into other impacts that are less obvious.

When the pandemic began, the impact it would have on public healthcare was rather obvious — hospitals were filling up at an alarming rate, and governments had to impose restrictions on how we traveled and interacted socially in order to slow the spread of the virus.

What was less obvious was that as people got sick, those people were also taken out of the workforce, which led to companies with large workforces of in-person labor such as in manufacturing having to suspend operations or shut down. When this happened at scale (particularly in China), this sent shockwaves through the very interconnected network of the global supply chain.

So while the spread of an airborne virus and whether or not you get your new PS5 don’t seem to be intrinsically linked topics, second-order effects begin to show their relationship.

Second order thinking
Second order thinking matrix

For: Decision making

What is it: A way of understanding the relative probabilities of cascading effects of your decisions

When it’s used: Public market investing, management, policy decisions

When it’s NOT used: Decisions during crises (i.e. addressing the risks at the first-order outweigh any other decision criteria)

A great example of how to apply 2nd order thinking in work life is with regards to training your direct reports. As you’ve ascended up the corporate ladder, you’ve probably gotten very good at doing certain necessary work tasks (creating a board presentation deck, building a financial model, etc.). But as you gather a team, you start to look for points of leverage where you can delegate tasks to your teammates, This allows them to build skills and frees up your capacity as a manager.

While initially it may seem like you have to take on all of the work because you have the most experience (so the work gets done at a high quality and quickly), it’s likely a better decision to delegate and coach your teammates to begin doing more of the work you did in the past. The result: over a short time horizon (i.e. the first-order), the work product might be diminished and require re-work. But as your teammates become more skilled, they will eventually be able to perform the work at a high level (possibly at an even higher level than you did in the past), and free up capacity for you to take on other duties. So if you didn’t consider the second-order impacts and a longer time horizon, your team misses a learning opportunity and you are put at a disadvantage by not trusting them to execute. Food for thought for the micromanagers out there! 😉

Keep in mind that some decisions cascade farther than the 2nd order/level. Sometimes the impact of something that happens at the 2nd level then goes on to affect the 3rd level (i.e. you made a decision that led to an outcome, the outcome impacts something else, and that outcome then impacts something else). While you’ll never have full visibility into all of the cascading effects of your decision, it’s worthwhile to consider as many levels down as is practical.

YOUR NEXT STRIDE

Here are our 5 top jobs of the week! If you'd like to share an open role, please use this form

OFF HOURS

Wellness 🏅

Having trouble sleeping? You’re not alone. Nearly one-third of adults struggle with their sleep, and women have a lifetime risk of insomnia that is 40% higher than men. One surprising way to improve your sleeping is taking a 10-minute walk outside first thing in the morning upon waking. “Forward ambulation” (i.e. walking) and exposure to sunlight in the morning help balance our hormones and our circadian rhythm, as explained by neuroscientist Dr. Andrew Huberman

Watch 📺

The Speed Cubers (Netflix) - A heartwarming and uplifting documentary about two friends and competitors in the world of competitive Rubik’s cubing. It’s got a 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Read 📚

Upstream: The quest to solve problems before they happen by Dan Heath. From the bestselling author behind Made to Stick, this book delves into why our so much of our efforts often skew towards reaction rather than prevention.

Listen 🎧

Simple rules for happiness In this episode of the Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish, Neil Pasricha (Author of The Happiness Equation) discusses the importance of gratitude and how simple acts can change the way you feel, where confidence comes from, the specific routines and habits you can use to counter anxiety, and the recipe for building resilience.

Doing Good ❤️

W're adding a new section - every week, we'll share one cause to learn about and support. If there are any causes that you're involved with, let us know and we'll feature it!

Moonshots for Unicorns - Lucy was diagnosed with a rare genetic disorder - so rare that it barely had a scientific name. Children with it would never talk, walk, and were likely to develop severe, recurrent, and often intractable seizures at some point in childhood. Lucy’s parents (both medical doctors) realised that there was no research or treatment - and there was no one working on it. They decided to set up Moonshot for Unicorns to research and rapidly develop treatments and cures for these disorders.

RANDOM BUT INTERESTING

This section is going to feature one material a week that we found interesting - but couldn’t really fit it in anywhere else. You can think of it as coming down the rabbit hole of curiosity with us just because — or fodder / anecdotes for your next speech 🤷🏽‍♀️

Generation-defining stats. It’s good practice to learn about and better understand anything growing exponentially. Bezos famously said that he found a stat showing the internet was growing 2300% per year, and that gave him conviction to start Amazon. a16z podcast host Steph Smith tweeted some other interesting stats on current trends, including the incredible drop in the cost of genome mapping and the steep rise in college tuition compared to post-grad earnings.

On our end, we’re super interested in deep tech and think AI is approaching exponential growth levels. Just check out Nature’s report citing the incredible year-on-year growth of AI and robotics peer reviewed articles.

AI and robotics

On that note, remember to be kind to your Amazon Alexa. She might just end up becoming The Terminator before this decade is over 😅.

SHARE THE LOVE

That’s all for this week. Have a ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ week ahead!

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